BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT: FORECASTING THE MARKET FOR DECARBONIZATION AND RELATED PRODUCTS USING THE LCA METHOD
Keywords:
by-products, life cycle, Brown's model, circular economy, metallurgical production
Abstract
The aim of this work is to manage business processes based on the forecasting of the decarbonization market and related products. The methods used in this study include general scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction), theoretical research methods (abstraction, theoretical modeling. The importance of by-products in the metallurgical industry is demonstrated, including dust and sludge, hot rolling scale, iron ore, fine fractions of agglomerate, pitch, and sulfur. Based on the dynamic trend of retrospective data on steel production from the World Steel Association for the period 2003-2022, trends were analyzed and forecast indicators were developed. LCA inventory data (using OpenLCA software), calculated using the Environmental Footprint method (Mid-point indicator) considering a projected steel volume of 2,231 thousand tons, assessed environmental impacts. The results indicated the greatest impact on environmental indicators. The forecasted capacity of potential decarbonization markets and related products was determined. The most significant segments of the global steel market for by-products will be: sludge, tails, stockpiled.
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2. Dekker, M., van Donselaar, K., & Ouwehand, P. (2004). How to use aggregation and combined forecasting to improve seasonal demand forecasts. International Journal of Production Economics, 90(2), 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2004.02.004
3. Gardner, E. S. (1985). Exponential smoothing: The state of the art. Journal of Forecasting, 4(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980040103
4. Makridakis, S., & Hibon, M. (2000). The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 451–476. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(00)00057-1
5. Smyl, S. (2020). A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 75–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.017
6. Liu, M., Taylor, J. W., & Choo, W.-C. (2020). Further empirical evidence on the forecasting of volatility with smooth transition exponential smoothing. Economic Modelling, 93, 651–659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.021
7. Rendon-Sanchez, J. F., & de Menezes, L. M. (2019). Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting. European Journal of Operational Research, 275(3), 916–924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.12.013
8. ISO. ISO 14044:2006. Environmental Management—Life Cycle Assessment–Requirements And Guidelines ISO 14044. Int. Organ. Stand. 2006, Available online: https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/es/#iso:std:iso:14044:ed-1:v1:en
9. Makepa, D. C., Chihobo, C. H., Manhongo, T. T., & Musademba, D. (2023). Life-cycle assessment of microwave-assisted pyrolysis of pine sawdust as an emerging technology for biodiesel production. Results in Engineering, 101480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2023.101480
10. Sangma, C. B. K., & Chalie-u, R. (2023). Life cycle assessment of wastewater treatment by microalgae. У Valorization of Microalgal Biomass and Wastewater Treatment (с. 137–178). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-323-91869-5.00008-9
11. S. Belodedenko, O. Hrechanyі, T. Vasilchenko, K. Baiul, A. Hrechana, Development of a methodology for mechanical testing of steel samples for predicting the durability of vehicle wheel rims, Results in Engineering, Volume 18, 2023, 101117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2023.101117
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13. Sui, P., Ren, B., Wang, J., Wang, G., Zuo, H., & Xue, Q. (2023). Current situation and development prospects of metallurgical by-product gas utilization in China's steel industry. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.04.050
14. Arastoa A., Tsuparia E., Kärkia J., Sihvonenb M., Liljab J. (2013) Costs and Potential of Carbon Capture and Storage at an Integrated Steel Mill, Energy Procedia, vol. 377. pp. 117-7124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.06.648.
15. World Steel. Blog: The future of global scrap availability. Available at: https://worldsteel.org/media-centre/blog/2018/future-of-global-scrap-availability/
16. Jiang, W., Li, X., Lv, Y., Jiang, D., Liu, Z., & He, C. (2020). Mechanical and hydration properties of low clinker cement containing high volume superfine blast furnace slag and nano silica. Construction and Building Materials, 238, 117683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2019.117683
17. Sukmak, P., Sukmak, G., De Silva, P., Horpibulsuk, S., Kassawat, S., & Suddeepong, A. (2023). The potential of industrial waste: Electric arc furnace slag (EAF) as recycled road construction materials. Construction and Building Materials, 368, 130393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.130393
18. Fisher L.V., Barron A. R. (2022) Effect of functionalized and unfunctionalized basic oxygen steelmaking slag on the growth of cereal wheat (Triticum aestivum). Resources, Conservation & Recycling Advances. Vol.15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcradv.2022.200092.
19. Sui, P., Ren, B., Wang, J., Wang, G., Zuo, H., & Xue, Q. (2023). Current situation and development prospects of metallurgical by-product gas utilization in China's steel industry. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.04.050
20. Ma, Z.-H., Wei, X.-Y., Liu, G.-H., Liu, F.-J., & Zong, Z.-M. (2021). Value-added utilization of high-temperature coal tar: A review. Fuel, 292, 119954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2020.119954
21. Ma, S.-h., Wen, Z.-g., Chen, J.-n., & Wen, Z.-c. (2014). Mode of circular economy in China's iron and steel industry: a case study in Wu'an city. Journal of Cleaner Production, 64, 505–512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.10.008
22. Liu, M., Taylor, J. W., & Choo, W.-C. (2020). Further empirical evidence on the forecasting of volatility with smooth transition exponential smoothing. Economic Modelling, 93, 651–659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.021
23. He, H., Guan, H., Zhu, X., & Lee, H. (2017). Assessment on the energy flow and carbon emissions of integrated steelmaking plants. Energy Reports, 3, 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2017.01.001.
24. El Hafdaoui, H., Khallaayoun, A., & Ouazzani, K. (2023). Long-term low carbon strategy of Morocco: A review of future scenarios and energy measures. Results in Engineering, 101724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2023.101724
25. Pavlenko, D. V., Belokon’, Y. О., & Tkach, D. V. (2020). Resource-Saving Technology of Manufacturing of Semifinished Products from Intermetallic γ-TiAl Alloys Intended for Aviation Engineering. Materials Science, 55(6), 908–914. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11003-020-00386-1
26. World Steel in Figures 2022. World Steel Association Available at: https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/World-Steel-in-Figures-2023-4.pdf (accessed Nov. 01, 2023)
Abstract views: 20 PDF Downloads: 9
Published
2024-12-25
How to Cite
Shapurov, O. (2024). BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT: FORECASTING THE MARKET FOR DECARBONIZATION AND RELATED PRODUCTS USING THE LCA METHOD. Scientific Journal of Polonia University, 66(5), 222-232. https://doi.org/10.23856/6624
Section
INNOVATION, WORK, SOCIETY
